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中国石化新闻网--圭亚那石油产量将继续增长

  • 2021-01-21

    中国石化新闻网讯 据1月18日Oil Now报道,在新冠肺炎疫情对石油行业造成毁灭性影响之后,多个利益攸关方认为,石油市场将会再经常出现2019年之前的需求水平。随着越来越多的国家正在加快可再生能源转型步伐,石油需求受到了诱导。

    但美国市场情报公司(Americas Market Intelligence, AMI)的分析师亚瑟·迪金(Arthur Deakin)持有所不同观点。他指出,需求将持续增长,直到经常出现人口衰退期。他表示:“我坚信, 全球GDP在某种程度上不会随着人口增长而不断增长。”

    在他看来,世界还远没超过这样的情况,也就是人口衰退。迪金认为,因为大多数国家没监管框架,容许100%可再生能源获得实施,对石油的市场需求将继续快速增长。虽然显然有一些国家已经有了以一定价格提供的监管框架和技术,这使得100%改向可再生能源在经济上是可行的。

    AMI分析师回应,在一定程度上,欧洲和美国的一些国家也出现了这种情况。然而,有许多国家无法以可行的价格只能取得这种技术,因为这些国家必须从中国和欧洲进口电池板或风力涡轮机。

    迪金认为,尽管世界还没有为这种转变做好充分准备,但可以容许同时用于可再生能源和化石燃料。因轻质原油的高市场需求,使圭亚那在能源过渡时期展开石油开发在一定程度上来说是安全的,至少在未来50年,可以有较好的发展。

    王佳晶 摘译自 Oil Now

    Oil demand will continue to climb says analyst, sees 50-year window for Guyana

    Following the devastating effects of the coronavirus pandemic on the oil industry, multiple stakeholders have posited that the sector would never see pre-2019 oil demand again. They say too that the demand is tempered by the fact that more countries are quickening their steps to renewables.

    But Analyst at Americas Market Intelligence (AMI), Arthur Deakin, holds a different outlook in which he sees demand increasing until there is a population plateau.

    “I believe that the economic growth of the world and the global GDP is sort of say, going to keep growing as the population grows, as we become even more of a consumer economy, then I think that the demand for oil is going to increase in conjunction,” Deakin said, speaking on a recent radio programme.

    Since the world in his view, is far from such a reality, that is to say a population plateau, Deakin still believes that the demand for oil will continue to increase since most nations do not have the regulatory framework that allows for 100 percent renewable to be implemented. He said that indeed, there are some countries where they already have that regulatory framework and technology available at a certain price which makes transitioning 100 percent to renewable energy economically viable.

    The AMI Analyst said one can see this happening in some countries in Europe and in the US to a certain extent. He noted however that there are a lot of countries in which the technology is not readily available at feasible prices because these countries have to import panels or wind turbines from China and Europe.

    Even as the world is not fully prepared for such a transition, Deakin said it is important to have a mix of both renewable and fossil fuels.

    During the interview, Deakin was asked if he believes that there is a narrow window for new oil producer Guyana to develop its resources in light of the transition. But to this he was quick to retort that Guyana is practically safe thanks to the high demand for its sweet light crude.

    “I think that the short answer is that the narrow timeframe is not that narrow. I think 50 years, probably, is a good panorama for that,” expressed Deakin.


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